Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Clear Conservative Path To GOP Nomination

Romney had a big victory in Florida, but it wasn't as big as Fox News and the Establishment want to persuade conservatives:

1.  Florida Delegates were only 50 versus 100, due to Florida violating Primary rules.
2.  Ron Paul didn't campaign in Florida
3.  Santorum had personal affairs to tend to and campaigned little in Florida and went to Nevada.

The Path (Click Here)  

These factors lead to a bigger percentage win for Romney, which the GOP Establishment will play up as a huge victory.  It's not a huge victory, it's a big victory.

There are also two Critical Factors that will neutralize Romney's new momentum.

1.  The majority of future states are proportional states, meaning he will split most states with Gingrich, Santorum and Paul.

2.  The combined conservative vote of Gingrich and Santorum; and economic conservative/libertarian vote of Ron  Paul is much more than Romney's ability to rack up large percentage wins.

At present levels of Delegates plus factoring in the present levels of support (Gingrich winning in both Missouri and Ohio and Santorum and Paul maintaining levels of support around 15%) this Primary is going to the Convention.

It is not possible under current support assumptions for Romney to get the 50% of all the Delegates he needs to win under the Republican Primary rules.  It is possible for Gingrich, Santorum and Paul to agree to prevent the Liberal Romney from winning.

A Conservative Deal is not that far fetched.  Why would Gingrich, Santorum or Paul sway their Delegates to RINO Romney.  We could have a conservative President, Vice President, and high level Cabinet position for the third place candidate.

It's not grandiose, it's very practical.  The top Delegate finisher is President and 2nd place finisher is Vice President of the United States.

The pitfalls are twofold:  1) Fox and GOP-E persuade conservatives that it is over and voters stay away 2) One of the three bolts to Romney.    There is no valid reason for any of the three to bolt to Romney if they are Principled conservatives.  

This arrangement, The Conservative Deal, would embolden a new Conservative Alliance that hasn't been seen since Reagan managed to bring in Economic, Social, and National Security conservatives.   This Alliance could bring all three plus bring in the young economic libertarians as part of a lasting Coalition.

This arrangement would be a nail into the coffin of Obama and a stake to the heart of the RINO Establishment of the GOP.

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