Cain Perry or Palin: Where do Conservatives go?
Assuming that Romney is rejected by ideological conservatives, except for a last resort stable fall back, conservatives will be making a huge decision and will start solidifying their support behind Cain, Perry or Palin.
This vacuum will be filled soon. Within the next couple of months. The "four more of Obama" fear is opening up the space and despite recent scientific data which challenges Einstein's Special Theory of Relativity, the law of Election Physics will speed up the process. Conservative Republicans know they have Obama (Jimmy Carter II) on the ropes and they are not messing around.
Cain: Cain has momentum coming out of his excellent debate performance, with the multiplier of Perry's meltdown. The key here is that Cain's people will have to adjust quickly and transition to Conservative Front Runner status. They have captured the attention of conservatives and now must parlay that by keeping that attention and building upon it. Galvanizing the grass roots will be the easy part, but they must request that vocally and publicly on a national basis. Garnering conservative's attention will not be enough.
The harder test will be one of Logistics. The Cain Campaign will have to go national, transitioning to organize nationally, while focusing on key states strategic to his winning. His "Business Man Protest" campaign will have to flesh out a staff to handle national organizing, financing and includes garnering local and state level politicians and fundraisers to come out and endorse Herman Cain. He needs Commitment. Kinetically moving from Trending and Momentum to front runner status will not be easy. The businessman will need to take a serious look at his staff and bring in more people. Expect huge gains in the next national Poll later this week.
Perry: Perry is an interesting case. His lackluster debate performances have imploded with a dreadful Florida Debate last week. Normally, it wouldn't be that big of a deal, but this is not a normal year. He is losing air fast. He is a victim of his early success, with his bubble taking off with a positive explosion over Establishment candidate Mitt Romney. Now, a few bad debates later, his rhetorical stumbling has conservatives pulling back on strong support. Gov. Perry will need to earn those voters back.
Perry's staff is used to winning elections but should not be complacent. This bubble burst is for real. Conservatives instinctively realize that a poor debate or debate error will give the media the opportunity to run with the "he's not competent" story, they want to tell, in the liberal media's blatant support of Barrack Obama.
Perry will have to slow down the financing efforts and practice debating. It matters. In addition, he needs to do a better job of explaining his "children of illegals" empathy and policy. Most Republicans believe that Perry is making direct subsidies to illegals. He also needs to do a reset on his Border Security policies and come out with a modified "building the fence" initiative. Expect huge losses in the next national Poll later this week, potentially shocking losses of support.
Palin: Palin still has strong currency among base conservatives and Tea Party activists. Don't believe the spin about her negatives and GOP voters not wanting her to run etc. It's way to early to expect acceptance and most people have no idea where she stands on policy issues. Yet, her policies run right in line with the majority of Americans' viewpoint, excepting the liberal media and the uber Liberals.
Palin will have the same obstacles of Logistics that Cain has as stated above. However Gov. Palin has more national support lined up waiting to go and has the ability to take the air out of Cain's momentum at the drop of her announcement. It's all about the announcement or no announcement for Sarah Palin. Interestingly, just a few months ago pundits were saying it was too late for her now. Currently, pundits are advising that she can wait even longer. I would posit that those who want her to wait past the Florida deadline for registering for the Primary, are either miscalculating or don't have Palin's interest at heart. Expect Palin to get in the race the last week of October or expect her to not run.