Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Chris Christie Out : Analysis....Cain Stronger than Showing

The Christie phenomenon is over.  It would have failed anyway, as he could only take votes away from a steady 23% of Romney core. He may have gotten a few percentage points from base Conservative voters, but that would have melted away.

Apparently, the media has forgotten this is a Republican Primary and that means Christie would have been hammered with questions about his being against Drilling Offshore, his intimate relations and coddling of  politically correct positions in regard to his Islamic minority, and a host of other issues.  He'd actually be DOA just on his Gun Control position and disrespect to the 2nd Amendment.

Uniquely, this is a minor loss for Conservatives Cain, Perry, and Gingrich.  Christie would have diluted some of Romney's support.

Romney has steady support from Moderates, Liberals (yes they exist in the GOP), and Establishment Republicans.   Cain is still surging and showing well in Polls in Florida, where he's solely in 2nd place, and North Carolina, where Cain is leading according to one Poll.  These are huge BattleGround states.

Nationally, Cain is solidly tied for 2nd with Perry.  Cain is looking strong, with the most intensity of support from any core of supporters.  Herman Cain also does well in states he has visited and campaigned in.  This speaks to the fact that many potential voters still don't know Cain or his policies.  He will improve greatly.

The other advantage is that Cain will be able to sustain his campaign due to his momentum.  Other conservatives will eventually fall out of the campaign and Cain will get a large share of that support. If Bachmann and Gingrich were out right now....Cain would be well ahead of Romney.  

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