Thursday, October 20, 2011

Rasmussen:  Likely Iowa Caucus Attendees :      Cain 28 Romney 21

"A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa caucus-goers shows that Cain is in front with 28% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 21%. Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third at 10% followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann at 8%, and Texas Governor Rick Perry at 7%. The sixth place finish for Perry is a sharp decline from early September when Perry was the front runner both nationally and in Iowa."

Two things are striking in the new Poll:

1)  Cain continues to surge, now showing separation from Romney
2)  The 2nd Tier candidates have significant combined conservative support of 27% support, which is support that will likely go to Cain, when those candidates drop out of their campaigns.

This poll supports recent polling that have shown Cain increasing leads nationally and in key states. Here.

Rasmussen indicates, "Among those absolutely certain they will show up and participate in the caucus, Cain leads Romney 31% to 18%. Many have criticized the Cain campaign for not having a strong organization in Iowa which is seen as essential to turning out the vote. According to such conventional analysis, Cain might be at risk of raising expectations too high and then under-performing."

So, Cain is setting in strong position and his consistent intensity levels indicate he my be even stronger than he appears. The biggest caveat is the lack of an organization that will get the Caucus vote out in Iowa.  Cain needs to expand his staff to meet the needs of his national popularity and he needs to capitalize on Iowa, because a win there will bring in more financial contributions and begin sifting off supporters of the 2nd tier candidates. 

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